Saturday, May 23, 2020
Covid19 Update May 25, 2020
Lockdown continues. There is no word of getting protective equiptmen, nor of any guidelines of how to re-open a large medical center. We remain hopeful. More concerning is that a second lockdown will mean that regular appointments and follow ups will have to be post poned. It is like sending a well trained army into action, but some general forgot to order bullets. Whats more the manuals have existed for years, and still seem to have dust on their covers.
Some of the most gifted researchers that I have met, have a unique ability. They rarely are swayed by pre-conceived ideas and unproven notions. They pick a likely explanantion and start there. What makes them different is that have a skill to collect observations and more importantly, data vital to their explanation. They refine, and separate fact from fiction and incorporate this knowledge into their initial assumption. They are not afraid to refine their predictions based on better facts and data. We need this to happen on a national if not global scale, to move forward in a positive direction.
A "lock down" in the midst of widespread infection has never been substantiated in science. The outcome should not be measured in how many tests are done???. So far, the situation has uncovered pre-existing problems in some long term care environments. Like most viruses, things spread quickly in confined indoor spaces. Sadly, many elderly could not cope with aging health conditions and covid. In other years, it would be influenza and very few would even notice the mini catastrophies. We have been waiting for a theoretical wave, which has not arrived, nor may it ever arrive.
In our area, many people are bewildered by how a lockdown is defined when there seems to be hundreds of thousands of people moving around. The coronavirus is now part of our environment along with hundreds of other bacteria, viruses and fungi. No one ever stated, that any of these actions will stop or cure coronavirus. There have been numerous inferences that somehow we are going to cure this common but more serious cold. The data for those under 60 certainly now supports that severity of symptoms or death or a rarity, even more so than perhaps influenza. That group seems to have a better chance of winning a lottery, than suffering severe covid effects. Media reports continue to sensationalize the rare and should be interpreted in a proper perspective. The rare results are probably related to unusual pre-existing factors. To sensationalize that it represents the norm is not helpful. To assume that you will not encounter the virus when "lockdown" is lifted, is over reaching. I continue to monitor the results in Sweden and other countries where slightly different approaches were taken, without economic catastrophe and seem to be faring as well as anyone with much less stress and mental health issues escalating. It seems our approach has cost us worstening of other health issues, depression, anxiety and devastation of numerous relationships. I hope that it is worth it, and implies that the world will no longer be the same. In the next few months, we will truly see the effects of a devastating economic pinch.
The is no science that can guide "re-opening". Firstly, we were never truly closed. You may hear about complex modelling, being used. These mathematical principles make numerous assumptions and use estimates. In other epidemics, most of them were very far off the mark, and rarely mentioned. Any science behind these things, is full of estimates and assumptions. I think our politicians are slowly realizing the differences and it makes it difficult for them to make decisions without ramifications at this point.