Monday, April 19, 2021
Check the traffic cameras and you will certainly wonder what it all means. You should avoid your isolated work out at the gym but drop into the LCBO next door?
Golfing spreads covid far more, than having a 1000 workers in a plant at minimum wage and no sick benefit? Children playing in the park is a crime?
You should not work when you are sick, even though you have bills to pay and are in debt because there are no sick benefits?
Where did this concept come from? Would you believe, it was a high school science project of a 14 y.o. girl around 2006, that played with numbers in a theoretically perfect world. Eg it assumed that cancelling school would result in "home jail" for children, when in reality children and adolescents are programmed for social contact to allow growth and maturity. Check the hiding spots around your neighbourhood and see what a warm sunny day of virtual school really looks like. Children do get covid but none have died yet in Ontario, unlike the more serious consequences seen in older people. There is nothing special about children being spreaders other than they attract and receive a lot of attention, as they should. Her poject soon became a political tool, even though it was meant to make a simple prediction during the first few weeks and not be used for years. I provide a link that explains it far better than I can.
It is based on mathematical principles and made up of assumptions, with very little science going in to this and which is why a lot of us on the front lines are bewildered and have difficulty explaining it to others. Measuring the success of this endeavour by test numbers alone, and ignoring the numerous other sensible and measurable variables, probably contributes to the dubious success claim.
The one thing certain about this endpoint is that the numbers always go down. It is the rule of how viruses and humans co-exist. If the numbers dont support the original concept, a simple adjustment by creating unsubstantiated claims of "incredible invisible spread" bring results to more desirable end points.
At the end of the day the only speculation that remains would also come down to your best guess. Would we be further ahead, less disease etc if we simply concentrated on simple measures, such as stay at home when mildly sick, wash your hands and wear a mask in crowded conditions?
We have all lost a great deal, some more tragic than others, in the last 15 mos. Vaccination will help, but even with "re-opening" it will takes years to rebuild and recover, and I sadly doubt that we or our basic values will be the same again.