2020 Novel Coronavirus
Monday, January 27, 2020
2020 Novel Coronavirus update:
You have probably heard by now of the new virus emerging in Wuhan China. I would like to remind you that it is a work in progress. Information is being refined on a daily basis. We are in the middle of our flu season and there is a great deal of influenza A present in our community. In Wuhan China and surroundings, there presently are approximately 100 million people being placed under restrictions. The risk of acquiring this virus is not considered great when you look at the entire country of Canada. However, we continue to welcome visitors by the thousands through our airports mainly Toronto and Vancouver. Just exactly how this will affect the situation appears to be a daily guess. Those visitors and travellers are appearing in our backyard and the situation will require more vigilance and care. Some countries have reacted by limiting travel from affected areas and closing their borders to these travellers while they examine the situation. There is a balance between losing commerce, tourist dollars, travel arrangements etc. However the cost to a publicly funded health care system can be staggering and possibly unsustainable as well. It is a lesson that complicates the situation in any country without universal healthcare such as China. True numbers are difficult to obtain since many individuals do not have the funds or desire or trust to approach the appropriate level of healthcare and screening.
More concerning is the recent observation that the virus can be transmitted by healthy carriers up to two weeks before showing any signs or symptoms. It takes close contact to get infected. The virus is not thought to be active or able to live on surfaces and temperatures below body level. This is an advantage. However, airlines recirculate their air in a closed cabin space amongst hundreds of people for hours at a time. It is a favourable environment for incubation and transmission to occur.
We have learned a great deal already. The virus has been characterized and is similar to the SARS virus. Interestingly it is a distant cousin of the common cold. A blood test has been developed to confirm and diagnose those affected with it. Like influenza, there currently is no active treatment and there is work being done to produce vaccines. The reality is that most people in our region who may panic and feel they have this virus will most likely be afflicted with influenza or another respiratory virus. The problem is that you cannot tell the difference and need to await testing. Your own immune system is the key and paramount in helping you fight it. Remember, the viruses do not exist to kill their host. They simply want a place to replicate and spread. It is the genetic mutation that becomes too overwhelming, but theoretically could put itself out of existence. The other problem is that many respiratory viruses mutate regularly to allow survival. Taking the above measures of handwashing, and extra vigilance helps a great deal.
Just to add some point of comparison. Influenza A is the bad influenza. It is composed of dozens of different strains many of which are related and others not.. Unfortunately there is a active circulating strain that is not in the vaccine. However most people who get infected will recover quite nicely. The death rate is really very small and estimated at about 1 in a 1000 people if not less. By comparison, the atypical coronavirus has a death rate of between 5 to 15%. The exact numbers not yet known. This is a substantial difference on several orders of magnitude. As of today the atypical coronavirus has not affected the pediatric population to any great extent. Influenza a is quite active in this population.
Another question that we are getting frequently is with regards to travel. As the situation is changing on a daily basis due to the numbers seem to be doubling every day, it is difficult to render travel advice. It is impossible to determine which countries may choose to close their borders and impose travel restrictions. The approach is different around the world. Even China has a history of underestimating the numbers. Their population is so massive that it is a daunting task no matter who you are. If you do travel, I suggest get up-to-date information from the Centre for disease control website and prepare for a possible response should the situation worsen very quickly.
stay tuned for reliable links and further updates as they come available: